Who could take over as the next Hamas leader?

Possible replacements for Yahya Sinwar include Khaled Meshaal and Khalil al-Hayya

With Yahya Sinwar gone, Hamas now has to appoint a new leader of Gaza and a new political leader because the assassinated Oct 7 mastermind held both positions.
The religious Shura council will handle the appointments, which could be a long process as most of the senior leadership has been killed.
But at least two of the likely candidates reside in Qatar, a key US ally. Joe Biden will likely come under pressure to pursue the extradition of the leaders in the coming days, while Hamas is expected to seek assurance from Doha that they will be allowed to remain.
The key figures believed to be in the running to replace Sinwar are as follows:
Khaled Meshaal, the former leader of Hamas, is perhaps the only person who could fill Sinwar’s shoes and govern the terror group effectively, albeit from abroad and not inside Gaza.
This means that he would likely be appointed the political leader and continue to reside in Qatar.
Meshaal was named Hamas’ political leader in 1996. A year later, he survived an Israeli assassination attempt in Amman, Jordan, when Mossad agents poised him.
The agents were, however, caught and arrested by Jordanian police, while Meshaal was brought to the hospital. The King of Jordan was furious with Israel over their operation on his soil.
The affair ended with Israel providing the antidote that saved Meshaal’s life, while freeing Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, the founding father of Hamas, from Israeli jail in exchange for Jordan freeing the Mossad agents.
Meshaal continued to represent Hamas from Syria until the civil war broke out and he then relocated to Qatar. His opposition to Bashar al-Assad brought Hamas on a collision course with Iran, who supported Assad.
When Meshaal was replaced by Ismail Haniyeh in 2017, Hamas re-established ties with Iran.
Despite his retirement in 2017, Meshaal continued to be involved with Hamas. It is unclear if he is interested in taking on the position and how it would affect Hamas’ ties with Iran.
Khalil al-Hayya, 64, began his career in Hamas in 2006 and slowly rose in the ranks. In 2017, he was elected the deputy leader of Hamas’s Gaza regional politburo in 2017, a position that he still holds.
Like Meshaal, Hayya resides in Qatar and has been Hamas’ main point man on the ceasefire negotiations. He is one of the most senior figures alive, and is a likely candidate for the position as political leader.
Hayya was also believed to have had a good relationship with both Sinwar and Haniyeh, the former political leader who was killed in Tehran in July.
Unlike Meshaal, Hayya has a good relationship with Assad, Iran and Hezbollah. In 2022, he led a Hamas delegation to Syria to start a new chapter with Assad.
His ties to the Iranian axis could be decisive, depending on which direction the Shura council wants to go.
Yahya Sinwar’s brother, Mohammed, is still believed to be alive, hiding from Israeli forces in Gaza.
Mohammed is considered a key strategist in Hamas’ operations inside Gaza
He was appointed as commander of Hamas’ Khan Younis brigade in 2005 and took part in the kidnapping of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit in 2006 from Israel into Gaza.
Sinwar’s brother currently commands Hamas’ southern brigade and is a member of the military council of the group’s military wing.
Israel is offering a £230,000 bounty for any information leading to Mohammed, who has escaped six assassination attempts, earning him the nickname “the living dead”.
Moussa Abu Marzouk is amongst the founders of Hamas and was elected the group’s first political leader in 1992.
He has lived in several countries over the years, including the US where he was jailed for 22 months. He was later expelled from both Jordan and Syria, and currently resides in Qatar.
In 2013, Marzouk was appointed a deputy under Meshaal, tasked with handling all external issues of Hamas.
He has given several interviews to Israeli media since Oct 7, often downplaying the atrocities and refusing to admit the mass killing of civilians.